The unemployment rate dropped below 8 percent for the first time since January, 2009. Good news for Obama. Romney says the number is closer to 11 percent if you count those who have quit looking for work. Who do you believe? Who can back up their words with facts?
Well, facts are hard to come by in this election. The fact is, the official government jobs report says unemployment is now 7.8 percent. Romney can throw all the unsubstantiated numbers out there he wants, but 7.8 is the official number.
How is it calculated?
The government conducts a survey. Surveys are always reliable, right? Labor Secretary Hilda Solis explains that this is the same formula used for the past 70 years. The numbers geeks at the Bureau of Labor Statistics review all the data from the surveys and calculate a number. They all come up with different numbers that are compiled into one national percentage.
The Census Bureau phones 60,000 people and asks them if they have a job. If the answer is no, they ask if they are looking for a job. If they are not looking, they are not counted. So, the survey only counts yes's and no's and the no's that are looking. Is this reliable? Could some wise-ass say, "I've given up until we get a new President?" And if someone says "I'm looking but there's no use. There is nothing," how is that counted?
They also phone 140,000 businesses gathering information about jobs. Wells Fargo chief economist John Silvia says the jobs number went up because there were more part-time jobs filled.
So, the jobs report is not exactly scientific fact. Romney may be right. The rate may be closer to 11 percent. It might be 15 percent. Don't the American voters deserve to see the real numbers, including those not looking?!
The unemployment rate was on the rise from September 2008 and continued climbing to its highpoint in February 2010. Since then it's been steadily going down. It goes up and down but one of the sharpest jumps in history was 2008-2009. It is usually followed by a sharp correct, based on information shown below over the past 40-50 years.
The rate went down a bit. Is it enough? Based on the chart below, no. But is it enough to put your faith in President Obama to keep it going? Or risk another upward spike with a new President?
The next report comes out the Friday before election day.
Image Source: Wikimedia Commons
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Source: http://politics.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474981682707
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